Future-less-vivid conditionals and the modal past

Abstract

Future-Less-Vivid conditionals (FLVs) are conditionals that display the typical morphological marking of counterfactuals, but whose antecedent has future reference time. An example is in (i):

(i) If Ada took semantics next term, she would take logic next year. 

The literature has coalesced on a near-consensus that FLVs cannot be contrary-to-fact. In this paper, I argue that the near-consensus is wrong. FLVs can be genuinely counterfactual: in particular, FLVs are counterfactuals about the future, i.e. can involve suppositions that contradict settled future facts. This has an interesting theoretical upshot. The behavior of FLVs is challenging for all theories on which tenses affect root modals by backshifting the time index of the modal base. These theories include all so-called Past-as-Past theories of X-marking. Conversely, the behavior of FLVs can be accommodated by Past-as-Modal theories.